UNDERSEA EARTHQUAKES EXPLAIN WHY WHALES BEACH

52 melon-headed dolphins strand in Japan north of Taiji

2011-03-06T19:36:00.000-08:00

Sunday, March 6, 2011

MITO, Ibaraki Pref. (Kyodo) Twenty-two melon-headed whales that had washed ashore in Kashima, Ibaraki Prefecture, were rescued and returned to the sea Saturday by authorities and local volunteers.

About 50 of the whales were found beached Friday night.

Around 200 people, including staff from Ibaraki's Oarai Aquarium, municipal government officials and local residents and surfers tried to save the whales by keeping them hydrated while they tried to refloat them, but about 30 of them died, according to the municipal government.

Melon-headed whales are commonly seen offshore around the area in early spring.

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We have several earthquakes that might fit this stranding. Our favorite pick is a shallow magnitude mb 5.4 that occurred 11:23 pm on 15 February 60 km SE of Okinawa, ~1,200 miles south of the stranding beach. The surface currents run in a direct path from Okinawa to the stranding beach. (see below)

http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=209411#scientific

The USGS website indicates this event was 4 km down below the surface of the sea.

This pod of seaquake-wounded dolphins managed to swim past the fisherman at Taiji, otherwise they might have ended up slaughter.

Comment on the Devastation in Christchurch and Mass Stranded Whales

2011-02-22T17:44:00.000-08:00

The recent devastation in Christchurch, New Zealand should show the World the potential energy released into the hydrospace when a shallow earthquake erupts in the seafloor.

The difference between what happened to the injured folks in the Christchurch disaster and what happens to a pod of whales above the epicenter of a seaquake is only in the manner of injury. People are injured by falling buildings caused to collapse when the seismic waves traverse the surface of the Earth. Whales are injury by potent changes in the surrounding water pressure generated when similar seismic waves traverse the surface of the seabed. (The dancing seafloor during a seaquake pushes and pulls at the water column like a giant piston, generating waves of alternating pressure waves.)

If we came upon a group of injured folks wondering around near fallen buildings we would know right away that an earthquake had occurred. It is more difficult when a group of whales beach after being injured by the dancing seabed during a seaquake. The big difference between the two groups in that flow of water on the surface of the ocean will quickly wash the wounded marine mammals away from the site of their injury and direct them downstream where they are eventually washed onto a beach, or harvested by sharks.

If current did not wash the wounded whales away from the epicenter, it would be easy to check the seismic records and find that indeed a catastrophic seaquake had occurred below the pod.

Regardless that surface currents directs the wounded pod downstream, the evidence that seaquakes are the major cause of whale beachings can be recovered by tracing the flow back upstream from the stranding beach. A suspicious seaquake a the proper distance upstream was always found in over 200 mass stranding reviewed by the Deafwhale Society.

To watch the footage of the Christchurch disaster and still believe that seaquakes do not injury whales denies common sense.

SEAQUAKE HYPOTHESIS: New Zealand kills 48 pilot whales.

2011-02-20T21:49:00.000-08:00

SEAQUAKE HYPOTHESIS: New Zealand kills 48 pilot whales: " New Zealand’s Department of Conservation said that 107 pilot whales died after becoming stranded on a remote island beach at th..."

New Zealand robs the sharks by allowing the meat from 107 dead pilot whales to rot away on the beach

2011-02-20T21:47:00.000-08:00

New Zealand’s DoC said that 107 pilot whales died after becoming stranded on a remote island at the bottom of the country’s South Island. Two visitors discovered the whales on Stewart Island yesterday when about half of the animals were still alive, according to a statement on the Department of Conservation’s website. Department workers were forced to kill 48 whales to stop their suffering as dry weather conditions would have prevented a successful rescue attempt, it said.

“With just five people currently on site and the tide on its way out, we saw little hope of keeping the animals alive until enough rescuers could be flown in to assist,” Brent Beaven, biodiversity program manager said in the statement.

The whales will be left to decompose naturally on the beach, robbing the sharks of tons on badly needed protein.

When a seaquake-injured pod strands and members start dying off right away, its a strong suggestion that the pod has been at sea for several months.

Two suspicious seaquakes occurred on 27 December 2010:

2010 12 27 152726.54 50.81S 139.24E 10 5.1 mbGS

http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=204734#scientific

2010 12 27 170232.88 50.81S 139.38E 10 5.6 MwGCMT

http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=204741#scientific

But we had previously used these two events to explain the restranding of a pod of pilot whales at Farewell Spit (Golden Bay) at the north end of South Island. http://deafwhale.blogspot.com/2011_02_05_archive.html

See news coverage on the Farewell Spit stranding:
http://tvnz.co.nz/national-news/refloated-whale-group-strands-again-4013458

This left us in a quagmire. We could not use the same two seaquakes to explain both strandings since the SEAQUAKE HYPOTHESIS says that the barotrauma knocks out biosonar (navigation) which results in the pod swimming downstream (path of least resistance) with the current from the injury to the stranding beach. For example, if we used the same events, why did the first pod strand on the north end of South Island and the second pod strand on the south end. And why ~12 days between the two strandings? We rechecked our data and found a fourth suspicious event had occurred about ~90 km south of the first two 8 days later on 4 January 2011. 2011 01 04 060604.89 52.08S 139.51E 10 5.1 mbGS

http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=205418#scientific

Eight days is plenty time to witness a change in the surface currents. Stewart Island is about ~2,200 miles down current from the 4 January event.

The 4 January event was further south and 8 days later so it is likely that the Stewart Island pod took a different travel path from the group beached on Farewell Spit (Golden Bay). We also suspect that the Stewart Island pod might have been caught up in a small eddy east of of South Island for a week or so.

NOTE:

My time is still very limited so I am not doing too many advanced predictions right now. But I promise to start predicting beaching 2 weeks in advance in April. Prediction are tough because they require an almost constant monitoring of the changes in the weather. Of course, not every suspicious seaquake will have a pod of whales above the epicenter so there must allowances made for unknowns. On other hand, connecting seaquakes with a stranding a month later is relatively easy. We are getting to the point now where we know by past experience where to look for seismic activity. More and more evidence indicates that most dangerous seaquakes occur above areas known as volcanic hotspots.

Recent Australian Shark Attack Suggest Forthcoming Mass Stranding!

2011-02-18T21:53:00.000-08:00

AN experienced diver killed by two sharks off the South Australian coast was a conservationist who would not want great whites hunted down and killed, a friend says.

Peter Clarkson, 49, was attacked as he surfaced after diving for abalone at Perforated Island near Coffin Bay in South Australia on Thursday, 17 February.

The boat skipper who witnessed the attack, believed to be by great whites, was treated for shock after failing to find Mr Clarkson and returning to shore.

Mr Clarkson had a house at Esperance in Western Australia's south and spent part of his year diving for shells around the WA coast.

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Let no one doubt... hungry sharks would trail behind a pod of seaquake-injured whales like wolves trailing a herd of elk. Every time a whale lagged behind, the sharks would move in and start feeding. White sharks would be driven mad by the blood and the stomach acid in the water after a feeding frenzy. If several sharks did not get a chance to feed, they would roam the area looking for any meal. A loan abalone diver would be too tempting to resist and a violent shark attack would ensue.

The SEAQUAKE HYPOTHESIS suggest a very sensible way to prevent shark attacks and save human lives.

The most dangerous time to be in the water is when seaquake-injured whales might also be in the same area. We have done a preliminary study and found that indeed most shark attacks occur when the odds are greatly increased that injury whales might be swimming nearby.

This particular shark attack is no different.

The following earthquake might have injured a pod of pilot whales which in turn swam with the flow of the surface currents into the waters off Coffin Bay.

Here's the data on the earthquake:

4.6 Mb - WESTERN INDIAN-ANTARCTIC RIDGE

Preliminary Earthquake Report Magnitude 4.6 Mb

Date-Time: 5 Feb 2011 06:37:54 local time near epicenter

Location: 48.776S 126.535E Depth 10 km

Distances: 1729 km (1075 miles) WSW (241 degrees) of Hobart, Australia

2377 km (1477 miles) SW (224 degrees) of CANBERRA, Australia

Location Uncertainty Horizontal: 34.6 km; Vertical 0.0 km

Parameters: Nph = 25; Dmin = 999.9 km; Rmss = 0.66 seconds; Gp = 115°

M-type = Mb; Version = 3 USGS Event ID "US b000190s"

http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=208337

Oceanic surface currents favor such a scenario. The seaquake-injured pod would have been carried north from the epicenter to the waters off Coffin Bay. From Coffin Bay on Thursday, the injured pod move west with the flow toward Perth. If they survive the pack of great whites that are surely dogging them, they might strand somewhere near 35S X 115E about 200 miles due south of Perth by the end of February. The chance for a beaching is about 30% in favor with 70% going to the sharks.

The point is that many shark attacks can be prevented in Australian waters.

The truth about why 84 pilot whales restranded in Golden Bay, NZ

2011-02-05T04:27:00.000-08:00

A group of pilot whales appears to have re-stranded on Farewell Spit, at the top of the South Island.

On February 04, 2011, eighty-four whales stranded at Puponga Point in Golden Bay, near the base of Farewell Spit, 14 of which died.

The rest refloated on the high tide about midnight and split into two groups; one group headed out to sea but the other had been trying to restrand at Nelson all day. The 70 whales that refloated overnight beached themselves again. Forty at Farewell Spit. Another group of 25 whales are also beached just south of Puponga Point.

Volunteers and members of the public had worked throughout the day to avert a restranding, and had been successful a couple of times. Tactics included standing in the water to form a barrier to the beach.

THE REAL REASON THE POD STRANDED:
The real cause of the stranding was barotraumatic injury to the head sinuses caused by rapid and excessive changes in ambient pressure generated in the water column (seaquakes) above the epicenter of two earthquakes that occurred along the WESTERN INDIAN-ANTARCTIC RIDGE on 28 December 2010 about 1075 km (668 miles) SSW (212 degrees) of Hobart, Australia. The local time in Hobart was 02:27 AM.

The magnitude of the first event was 5.0 Mb, located by computer at 10 km below the rock water interface near 50.832S 139.173E. This area is a popular squid feeding grounds for pilot whales.

http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=204734

Examine a satellite map of the earthquake's epicenter and zoom out to also see the stranding area:

http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=204734#maps

The second event, at 5.6 Mw magnitude and only 2 km deep in the seafloor, was far more dangerous to the pod and likely was the most damaging. It occur in the same area 90 minutes later.

http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=204741#summary

The seaquake waves (rapid and excessive pressure changes) caused the volume of air in various sinuses to expand and contract rapidly. The changes in the surrounding water pressure was too excessive and rapid. The pressure waves were more potent than the abilities of the whales to adjust. The results of excessive pressure changes in the surrounding pressure is similar to what would happen in a high-flying airliner that suddenly lost cabin pressure. In other words, the entire pod of whales suffered a barotraumatic injury in their massive head sinuses. When these sinus membranes (especially those of the pytergoid sinuses) tear or rupture, the cavities that normally contain air, fill up with blood and body fluids and are no longer functional.

The elaborate head sinuses of mass stranders not only serve in the generation of sonar clicks, they also serve to isolate each cochlea from unwanted sound. Cochlea isolation is a critical process and at the very heart of echolocation. In other words, the rapid and excessive changes in water pressure causes an equal and rapid change in the volume of air contained in the head sinuses of a diving whales. A break or tear in these sinuses from over-expansion allows blood and body fluids to fill the sinus rather than air. Without air-filed sinuses, the biosonar of each whale simply fails to function.. A busted sinus would also prevent diving and feeding.

The whales can recover if the injury is not too severe and they find food on the surface; however, if recovery does not happen within a few weeks, the pod will reach a point of no return when recovery is impossible.

As mentioned above, the pod losses its ability to navigate when its sinuses are not working properly. Without a sense of direction, the wounded animals will huddle together for protection against shark attack and swam off from the epicenter of the earthquake in the direction of the flow of the surface currents.

The resistance in the water to swimming in any direction other than downstream prevents the non-navigating whales from heading upstream or even parallel to the flow. The path of least resistance for injured whales is ALWAYS DOWNSTREAM with the flow of the current.

One can easily verify this simple fact by closing your eyes and swimming in a current. You will be turned by the current and pointed downstream in less that 15 seconds. Thus, the swim path of this injured pod from the beach back to the seaquake epicenter SSW of Hobart can be depicted by tracing upstream from the stranding beach. Satellite data is necessary.

IN THE MILLIONS OF YEARS WHALES HAVE BEEN STRANDING, NO POD HAS EVER RESTRANDED UPSTREAM FROM THE ORIGINAL STRANDING SITE.

The injured whales will always restrand downstream!

The reason why whales mostly strand on a beach in the first place is because the current that carried each grain of sand to build the beach is the same energy that directs the whales to the sandy area.

Seaquake injured whales are forced to swim along at 2-4 knots in the direction of the current in order to stay afloat and avoid shark attack. If the current moves at 2 knots and the whales swim at 3 knots, the pod will travel downstream ~5 nautical miles per hour or ~125 nautical miles per day. This means that if a seaquake wounded pod survives for 30 days, they could travel over 3,000 miles for the point of injury. However, the current meanders and often goes around and around in circles (eddies), especially in the Tasman Sea.

This researcher has detailed over 300 strandings and found that the average distance following the flow of the current downstream is ~2,500 miles from the seaquake epicenter to the stranding beach. If the stranding occurs much closer to the epicenter of the seaquake (in distances and in time) the odds are greatly increased that the pod can be successfully refloated since they are in much better health and far less stressed.

The average time between injury and beaching is about 30 days. Packs of sharks follow the wounded pod like wolves dogging a herd of elk. The hungry sharks will snatch an straggler. Many small sharks are prevented from feeding by bigger sharks. These small sharks are ravished and will attack anything in the water.

SWIMMERS MUST AVOID THE WATER WHEN SEAQUAKE INJURED WHALES ARE IN THE AREA.

Below is a chart depicting the average current for the month of January 2011. The earthquake was epicenter SSW of Tasmania where the 50S line intersects the 140E line.

There was also another earthquake in the same area that occurred on January 4, 2011. However, the shallow 5.6 Mw event hypo-centered only 2 km below the seafloor was likely twenty times more dangerous especially since it came only 90 minutes after another seaquake.

Capt. David Williams
Deafwhale Society, Inc.

Dangerous Seaquake Southwest of Australia

2010-11-20T14:07:00.000-08:00

On 10 November 2010, near the lower left corner of the chart below, a magnitude 6.4 earthquake erupted in the seabed. This event could have generated potent pressure changes in the water above the epicenter. If so, a pod of diving whales, caught off guard by this event, could have been injured (barotrauma) resulting in a mass stranding somewhere along the southern shore of Australia or western shores of Tasmania. The locations of stranding site depends solely on the flow of the surface currents over the next few weeks. My GUESS now is King Island area between the mainland and Tasmania. Target date around 5 December 2010. Likely species: pilot or sperm whales.

The major drawback to this prediction coming true involves the magnitude of this event. Earthquakes >6 mag often emit precursors signals several hours before the main eruptions. If this was the case here, any pod near the epicenter would have detected these signals and moved out of the danger zone.

surface currents Nov 16, 2010

24 whales in danger of becoming stranded in the Outer Hebrides, Scotland

2010-10-28T18:34:00.000-07:00

The SEAQUAKE HYPOTHESIS indicates that this pod was injured by a series of 3 seaquakes that occurred south of Iceland on 26 September 2010. In fact, on 29 September 2010 we predicted a pod of whales might be injured and "if the winds shifts a little south, the injured pod could strand in the Scotland, the Orkney Islands or in the Shetland Islands.

29 SEPTEMBER 2010

Three dangerous seaquakes south of Iceland

The three seaquakes listed below are the most dangerous to whales that we have observed all year. Surely these events will cause a pod stranding somewhere.

The question is where will the injured whales strand? Right now the surface currents are headed straight for the Fareo Islands in the North Atlantic. The Fareo people have a tradition of driving whales to their beaches and slaughtering the animals.

However, if the winds shifts a little south, the injured pod could strand in the Scotland, the Orkney Islands or in the Shetland Islands. Or they could swim through the channel between Orkney and Shetland Islands and enter the North Sea.

The whales should near the Fareos on or about 6 October. If they are not harvested in the drive fisheries, they should arrive at the entrance to the North Sea on 9 October.

Time will tell....

Mag 5.4 M
Sunday, September 26, 2010 at 10:08:45 PM at epicenter
57.674°N,   32.776°W
Depth   10 km (6.2 miles)
REYKJANES RIDGE
825 km (520 miles) ESE of Qaqortoq (Julianehab), Greenland
915 km (570 miles) SSE of Tasiilaq (Angmagssalik), Greenland
930 km (580 miles) SW of REYKJAVIK, Iceland
1260 km (780 miles) ESE of NUUK (GODTHAB), Greenland
Location Uncertainty   horizontal +/- 16 km (9.9 miles); depth +/- 3.7 km (2.3 miles)
Parameters NST=211, Nph=219, Dmin=999.6 km, Rmss=0.93 sec, Gp= 32°,
M-type=teleseismic moment magnitude (Mw), Version=7
Source USGS NEIC (WDCS-D) Event ID   us2010bsac

5.4 Mb
Sunday, 26 Sep 2010 10:16:13 PM near epicenter
57.730N 32.713W
Depth    10 km
REYKJANES RIDGE
918 km (570 miles) SW (224 degrees) of REYKJAVIK, Iceland
Location Uncertainty Horizontal: 14.3 km; Vertical 3.4 km
Parameters Nph = 278; Dmin = 991.9 km; Rmss = 1.29 seconds; Gp = 21°
M-type = Mb; Version = 6 Event ID US 2010bsam

5.0 Mb
26 Sep 2010 10:28:13 PM near epicenter
57.720N    32.748W
Depth    10 km
REYKJANES RIDGE
920 km (572 miles) SW (224 degrees) of REYKJAVIK, Iceland
Location Uncertainty Horizontal: 14.2 km; Vertical 3.8 km
Parameters Nph = 165; Dmin = 994.1 km; Rmss = 0.95 seconds; Gp = 61°
M-type = Mb; Version = 6 Event ID US 2010bsah

La Nina Weather Pattern is Altering Surface Winds.....

2010-10-24T18:32:00.000-07:00

The strong La Nina is altering surface winds and currents and defeating our abilities to predict strandings with any degree of accuracy. We are also extremely busy with other projects and can not devote the time it takes to sort out surface flow. We will suspend predictions until we have more time.

Three dangerous seaquakes south of Iceland

2010-09-29T07:31:00.000-07:00

Pilot Whales stand on North Island in New Zealand

2010-09-22T02:37:00.000-07:00

We predicted a stranding for the southern end of Australia for around 20 September 2010.

http://deafwhale.blogspot.com/2010/08/stranding-predicted-in-australia-for-20.html

But now it looks like we missed the surface currents. More then likely this pod was injured by the Mag 5.0 seaquake on 25 Aug 2010 at 49.500S x 117.366E along the WESTERN INDIAN-ANTARCTIC RIDGE.

The surface currents shifted and carried these whales past Tasmania and on to North Island.

Several dangerous seaquakes could result in mass strandings.

2010-09-15T01:49:00.000-07:00

The following seaquakes have the potential to injury a pod of whales but deafwhale has no time to analysis these events.

4.6 Mb - RED SEA
Preliminary Earthquake Report Magnitude     4.6 Mb
Date-Time 13 Sep 2010 04:35:23 near epicenter
Location 17.108N 40.596E   Depth 10 km
Distances: 209 km (130 miles) W (276 degrees) of Jizan, Saudi Arabia;
234 km (145 miles) SSW (194 degrees) of Al Qunfidhah, Saudi Arabia;
Parameters Nph = 14; Dmin = 494.1 km; Rmss = 0.96 seconds; Gp = 86°
M-type = Mb; Version = Q Event ID US 2010bdaq

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5.1 Mb - CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
Preliminary Earthquake Report Magnitude     5.1 Mb
Date-Time 13 Sep 2010 00:48:07 near epicenter
Location 0.412N 28.742W Depth 10 km
Distances: 997 km (620 miles) NE (47 degrees) of Natal, Brazil;
1713 km (1064 miles) SSW (200 degrees) of PRAIA, Cape Verde
Parameters Nph = 23; Dmin = 999.9 km; Rmss = 1.53 seconds; Gp = 86°
M-type = Mb; Version = 6 Event ID US 2010bdba

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5.6 Mw - OFFSHORE NAYARIT, MEXICO
Preliminary Earthquake Report Magnitude     5.6 Mw
Date-Time 14 Sep 2010 17:31:57 near epicenter
Location     21.058N 106.218W Depth 5 km
Distances: 109 km (68 miles) W (264 degrees) of Las Varas, Nayarit, Mexico;
112 km (69 miles) WNW (296 degrees) of Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco, Mexico
Parameters Nph = 293; Dmin = 481.8 km; Rmss = 1.07 seconds; Gp = 90°
M-type = Mw; Version = 8 Event ID US 2010becx

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5.1 Mw - GULF OF CALIFORNIA
Preliminary Earthquake Report Magnitude     5.1 Mw
Date-Time 15 Sep 2010 00:50:08 near epicenter
Location 29.887N 114.088W Depth 10 km
Distances: 145 km (90 miles) SSE (149 degrees) of San Felipe, Baja California, Mexico;
168 km (104 miles) SSW (199 degrees) of Puerto Peñasco, Sonora, Mexico
Parameters Nph = 258; Dmin = 410.8 km; Rmss = 1.04 seconds; Gp = 79°
M-type = Mw; Version = 6 Event ID US 2010bfa3

Pod standing possible for Newfoundland ~Ist of October

2010-09-10T21:59:00.000-07:00

Pod stranding possible for Newfoundland first week in October.

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5.2 Mb - REYKJANES RIDGE


Magnitude	5.2 Mb
Date-Time	9 Sep 2010 08:31:05 near epicenter
Location	59.568N 30.186W
Depth	10 km
Distances	666 km (414 miles) SW (224 degrees) of REYKJAVIK, Iceland
Location Uncertainty	Horizontal: 12.2 km; Vertical
Parameters	Nph = 27; Dmin = 740.3 km; Rmss = 0.59 seconds; Gp = 122° M-type = Mb; Version = 6
Event ID	US 2010azay

expect mass stranding in the Fareo Islands~15 September 2010

2010-09-01T23:13:00.000-07:00

The Fareo Islands are situated about 1,000 miles downstream from the earthquake listed below. Any dolphins injury by this event will likely be carried by the surface currents into Fareo waters and maybe driven ashore by Fareo fishermen.

________________________________________________________________

4.9 Mb - REYKJANES RIDGE

Preliminary Earthquake Report
Magnitude	4.9 Mb
Date-Time	30 Aug 2010 12:57:45 UTC 30 Aug 2010 10:57:45 near epicenter 30 Aug 2010 20:57:45 standard time in your timezone
Location	58.188N 32.179W
Depth	10 km
Distances	858 km (533 miles) SW (224 degrees) of REYKJAVIK, Iceland
Location Uncertainty	Horizontal: 9.5 km; Vertical
Parameters	Nph = 69; Dmin = 931.7 km; Rmss = 1.23 seconds; Gp = 100° M-type = Mb; Version = 6
Event ID	US 2010apa1

For updates, maps, and technical information, see:
Event Page
or
USGS Earthquake Hazards Program
National Earthquake Information Center
U.S. Geological Survey
http://neic.usgs.gov/

Whale Mass Stranding Possible in the Southern Most Parts of Australia Sometime Around 20 September 2010

2010-08-26T05:39:00.001-07:00

As laid down in the Seaquake Hypothesis, vertical traveling pressure waves generated above the epicenter of the following earthquake might rupture the head sinuses of an entire pod of whales and cause them to lose the ability to dive and feed themselves and to echonavigate.

Magnitude 5.0 Mb 25 Aug 2010 12:06:17 local time near the epicenter located at 49.500S x 117.366E and focused 9 km below the ocean's surface along the WESTERN INDIAN-ANTARCTIC RIDGE -- epicenter situated 1955 km (1215 miles) S (177 degrees) of Perth, Australia. Parameters Nph = 73; Dmin = 999.9 km; Rmss = 1.43 seconds; Gp = 43°

Surface currents are now flowing toward King Island and the Bass Strait. But as the injured pod nears land, the current is expected to split into three different streams. One stream will head southeast along the western shores of Tasmania and on toward Cape Sorell and Macquarie Harbour. The second stream will enter the Bass Strait. The third branch of current could head northwest toward South Australia.

Best guess for a stranding beach would be near (1) Cape Sorell (2) King Island, and (3) inside Spencer Gulf.

Expect Stranding around 20 September. Likely species: long fin pilot whales or sperm whales.

Deafwhale

(posted 27 August 2010)

Alert for Sperm Whale Standing on Italy's Southern Coast on or about 22 September 2010

2010-08-25T23:13:00.000-07:00

On Thursday, 10 December 2009, nine (9) sperm whales beached on Italy's southern coast (North of Varano Lake, Peninsula of Gargano, Apulia, Southeast Italy -- 41.920N at 15.743E). At least seven died in what experts said was a rare and puzzling mass beaching for such a large species. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/wildlife/6796434/Nine-whales-beached-in-Italy-in-rare-accident.html The marine mammal experts determined that the whales died because they ate a lot of plastic trash. Deafwhale laughed. Why the heck would a mighty sperm whale eat plastic unless he/she was already sick and dying? Deafwhale knew that seaquake-injured whales are starving and will often eat anything on the surface that remotely resembles the body of a squid. He ignored the so-called experts and did a search for the real culprit, which turned out to be a 5.7 magnitude earthquake in an area of the Ionian Sea known to be the year-around home of a large group of sperm whales. http://www.deafwhale.com/stranded_whale/2009/sperm_whales_italy.htm Strange as it may seem, on 22 August 2010 (at 1:23 PM local time) another earthquake of the same magnitude struck the very same area in the center of the sperm whale habitat. http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=144865 The seismic fault in this area is thrusting so it is likely that the event would have generated a series of potent vertical traveling pressure waves that would have cause barotrauma in any nearby pod of diving whales. There is one drawback. The event happened at 1:23 pm, a time when sperm whales are more likely to be found on the surface, rather than down deep near the epicenter. Diving whales are 100 times more vulnerable at depth, then resting on the surface. The only question at the time of this posting is with the flow of the surface currents. Will the currents carry any injured whales toward the Italian Coast? The odds favor such a beaching. We will know within about 30 days. Deafwhale

Standing Alert for Ireland and Scotland for early September

2010-08-25T18:51:00.000-07:00

The earthquake listed below occurred in a known whale habitat 1350 km (840 miles) SW of REYKJAVIK, Iceland. This area is also known to produce tectonic/volcanic earthquakes accompanied by rapid vertical trusting motion. It has the potential to injury a pod of pelagic dolphins. MAGNITUDE 4.7 (GS) depth=10.0 km (default depth by geophysicist) Location= REYKJANES RIDGE System 19 AUG 2010 @ 04:57 AM local time lat =54.086N +/- 6.1 km lon =35.120W +/- 2.7 km 990 km (610 miles) SE of Qaqortoq (Julianehab), Greenland 1290 km (800 miles) S of Tasiilaq (Angmagssalik), Greenland 1470 km (910 miles) SE of NUUK (GODTHAB), Greenland. The surface currents from this area are now headed toward Ireland and the UK. Any injured pod would be expected to show up in this area sometime around the 1st of September. However, the pod would still be able to avoid a beach unless the seas and wind are heavy. Deafwhale expects beachings from this event to begin around the 7th of September and more likely occur along the shores of the North Channel between Ireland and Scotland.

58 pilot whales strand in New Zealand as predicted

2010-08-19T21:02:00.000-07:00

http://tvnz.co.nz/national-news/huge-effort-rescue-surviving-stranded-whales-3722937 We predicted this stranding on 11 July 2010 but could not be certain about the surface currents (see top left chart). The waters were relatively calm and had no real sense direction. The quakes occurred almost due south of Tasmania in the red zone (swift current) pictured on the right. As it looked on 17 July, the currents shifting to the north were relatively weak so we left the stranding site open. But as you can see in the most recent chart on the right, the winds picked up and shifted the surface waters more toward Northland. To really be 100% on target in predicting stranding in advance, one must check the currents everyday and adjust the likely stranding beach accordingly. We also went back over the seismic data and the surface currents and now realize that there were 5 earthquakes that might have injured these whales. We can not be sure which event was the most likely so we list them all below: 2010 07 06 180210.14 -53.73 140.61 10 5.1 mbGS ~2,000 miles upstream from the beach 2010 07 06 182822.42 -53.75 140.73 10 5.0 mbGS ~2,000 miles upstream from the beach 2010 07 06 183343.14 -53.60 140.68 10 4.6 mbGS ~2,000 miles upstream from the beach 2010 07 08 215503.28 -49.27 120.83 10 4.5 mbGS ~2,800 mile upstream from the beach 2010 07 09 111615.90 -49.28 120.83 10 5.2 mbGS ~2,800 mile upstream from the beach What is needed to select the right earthquake is the acoustic data from the hydoacoustic listening stations but this part of the Australian and New Zealand governments will not cooperate with us for some unknown reason. Maybe we can work on getting this data in the near future.

Pilot Whales Stand on Norman's Cay in the Bahamas

2010-08-18T19:17:00.000-07:00

Four pilot whales washed up on Norman"s Cay on 13 August 2010. http://www.tribune242.com/news/08132010_whales_news_pg1 Two suspicious earthquakes occurred about a thousand miles upstream near the seismically active Puerto Rico Trench in a known pilot whale habitat. The first on 7 July 2010. http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=177227 The second on 17 July. http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=178623 We like the second one because it fits the timing of the stranding a little better. open map of the second event

STRANDING ALERT-- 5.2 Mb EARTHQUAKE EPICENTERED ON THE WESTERN INDIAN-ANTARCTIC RIDGE

2010-07-11T15:57:00.000-07:00

This earthquake is epicentered in a known whale habitat and has the potential to cause a mass stranding on or about 5 August 2010. The predicted pressure-related sinus injury (barotrauma) will prevent the whales from diving and feeding themselves due to intense sinus pain. The injury is also expected to cause a rupture in the pertygoid sinuses surrounding each cochlea, thereby disrupting biosonar (echo-navigation and echo-location). With no sense of direction, coupled with a fear of shark attack, the whales will form into a tight group and swim along with the flow of the surface currents. Surface currents are variable and hard to predict in advance. As it looks now, any wounded pods could be directed to a beach on: (a) Tasmania (b) King Island area or (c) South Island, New Zealand. On a scale of 1 to 10, the likelihood of a stranding is 3. ______________________________________ THE EARTHQUAKE: Magnitude 5.2 Date-Time: Friday, July 09, 2010 at 07:16:16 PM at epicenter Location: 49.256°S, 120.507°E Depth: 14.2 km (8.8 miles) Region: WESTERN INDIAN-ANTARCTIC RIDGE Epicenter is 1965 km (1220 miles) S of PERTH, Western Australia, Australia Location Uncertainty: horizontal +/- 25.8 km (16.0 miles); depth +/- 5.6 km (3.5 miles) Parameters: NST= 59, Nph= 60, Dmin=>999 km, Rmss=1.21 sec, Gp= 61°, M-type=body wave magnitude (Mb), Version=6 Source * USGS NEIC (WDCS-D) Event ID us2010ymay USGS Event Page

mass whale stranding prediction for Saint John's Newfoundland for last week in June

2010-06-04T03:42:00.000-07:00

A potent seaquake east of Greenland, followed by several strong aftershocks, could injury a feeding pod of pilot whales or deep water dolphins. If so, the injured pod is expected to travel south around the southern tip of Greenland and west across the Labrador Sea to the shores of Labrador and then south again swimming just offshore of Saint John's, Newfoundland in the last week of June. They are expected to mass strand ~300 km south of St John's, possibly very near St Lawrence. The variables that determine the accuracy of this prediction are: (a) The diameter of the danger zone is estimated to be ~10 km and might not contain any whales. (b) The whales might have sense the pending quake and scamper away from the danger zone before being injured. This is especially true for larger earthquakes that emit precursor signals hours in advance. (c) The vertical component of the earthquake might be too weak to generate rapid and excessive pressure changes needed to cause barotraumatic injury in diving whales. (d) Seaquake-injured whales might recover within a few days if their injuries are minor. (e) Seaquake-injured whales might be taken by sharks before reaching the beach, especially if their injuries are severe. Big oceanic sharks feed on whales, not on squid! A potent seaquake in a whale habitat is a dinner bell for big sharks. (f) Oceanic surface currents might carry the pod away from shore where they eventually recover or succumb to shark predation. (g) The injured pod might strand in a remote area and not be discovered. (h) A storm at sea might split the pod into several smaller groups which can then strand at different beaches. (i) Native folks might harvest the stranded whales and not report them to the authorities. Eating seaquake-injured whales live-stranded on a beach was common a hundred years ago, and appears to be a environmentally sound practice. ______________________________________ THE EARTHQUAKE: 5.4 Mb - JAN MAYEN ISLAND REGION 70.777N 14.534W 10 km 277 km (172 miles) E (80 degrees) of Ittoqqortoormiit (Scoresbysund), Greenland 801 km (498 miles) NNE (20 degrees) of REYKJAVIK, Iceland Nph = 251; Dmin = 732.5 km; Rmss = 1.22 seconds; Gp = 36° M-type = Mb; Version = 6 US 2010xbah