A rash of whale and dolphin strandings are predicted to occur in the Gulf of Mexico and around Florida and as far north as Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.
A magnitude 7.3 earthquake occurred offshore of Honduras on Thursday, May 28, 2009 at 02:24:45 AM local time. The epicenter was near 16.733°N, 86.220°W. The depth of focus was constrained by location program to be a maximum of 10 km below the surface of the sea.
This event was the most powerful shallow-focused seaquake to occur in the last 20 years. Rapid changes in hydrostatic pressure near the epicenter and will surely injured (barotrauma) many whales and dolphins of different species. Where the survivors might beach depends solely of the flow of the surface currents from the epicenter. The general path of the current from the waters off Honduras is north through the western Caribbean into the Yucatan Channel and into the Gulf of Mexico by way of the Loop Current.
http://www.csc.noaa.gov/crs/definitions/loop_current.html
Based on the latest SST data, the Loop Current intrudes into the GOM to about 28 degrees north and then turns back south toward Cuba before it swings north again.
http://fermi.jhuapl.edu/avhrr/gm/averages/09jun/gm_09jun06_0241_multi.png
As of 2 AM (Miami time) on Saturday morning, June 6th, the injured whales should be in the Gulf of Mexico near 28 degrees N about 200 miles due west of Clearwater, Florida. These whales should arrive somewhere near Key West Florida on or about June 12. I don't expect them to strand right away unless there is a lot shoreward wind. Best guess is that they will travel northeast with the Florida Current, skirt along the Florida Keys to Miami and join the Gulf Stream and head north as far as Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.
In fact, if the wind and currents hold steady, Cape Hatteras looks like the best spot for a beaching. Since seaquake-injured pods travel downstream about 100 miles per day and are at sea on average of about 25 days, a typical stranding should be expected near Cape Hatteras sometimes around the 23rd day of June.
It all depends on how badly the animals were injured in the seaquake. Seriously injured whales might start hitting the beach near Key West on June 12th. Many carcasses might drift into shore.
Let there be no doubt--this seaquake was nasty and it occurred in an area where many offshore whales feed. However, the surface currents are tricky to predict without a lot of help. I noticed the other day that there is also the YUCATAN CURRENT that must be plugged into the prediction.
http://oceancurrents.rsmas.miami.edu/caribbean/yucatan.html
Without the latest satellite data, which I do not have the time to gather, the possible stranding site is going to be hard to call. There were also 5 or 6 major aftershocks. The latest on 15 June. These aftershocks were strong enough to injure whales so this increases the time that a pod might strand to as far out as the last week in July.
These events are unique and will surely injure whales. The only question in my mind is whether the surface currents will keep the injured animals offshore until the sharks have had time to take them all, or will the surface currents dump them ashore? Only time will tell.
I rate the chance of a likely stranding as an 8 out of 10--high indeed!
Update 9 AM (Miami) Wednesday, 23 June 2009:
Tropical storm Ana located offshore of North Carolina could stir/blow the injured pod out to sea? Timing is everything now. It all depends on where the injured whales are at this exact moment.
Here's the link on the storm!
Capt. David Williams
3 AM Miami time, 6 June 2009
